Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.029916 0.034035 0.038535 0.043820 0.049859 0.056552 0.064538
2025-02-09 0.023995 0.029730 0.036565 0.045327 0.056286 0.069571 0.086948
2025-02-16 0.020091 0.026354 0.034265 0.045024 0.059328 0.077761 0.103438
2025-02-23 0.017555 0.024124 0.032827 0.045253 0.062623 0.086172 0.120735
2025-03-02 0.015356 0.021959 0.031075 0.044645 0.064458 0.092521 0.135628
2025-03-09 0.014046 0.020820 0.030523 0.045523 0.068306 0.101888 0.155659
2025-03-16 0.012609 0.019302 0.029211 0.045063 0.070010 0.108137 0.171533
2025-03-23 0.011859 0.018713 0.029182 0.046479 0.074634 0.119162 0.195912
2025-03-30 0.010570 0.017140 0.027460 0.045013 0.074470 0.122527 0.208106
2025-04-06 0.009635 0.016031 0.026350 0.044392 0.075559 0.127934 0.224156
2025-04-13 0.008615 0.014680 0.024709 0.042699 0.074624 0.129773 0.234086
2025-04-20 0.008274 0.014441 0.024894 0.044134 0.079221 0.141543 0.262956
2025-04-27 0.007943 0.014201 0.025075 0.045619 0.084128 0.154487 0.295723
2025-05-04 0.007626 0.013958 0.025231 0.047077 0.089140 0.168147 0.331476
2025-05-11 0.007087 0.013255 0.024487 0.046769 0.090758 0.175534 0.355660
2025-05-18 0.006675 0.012749 0.024056 0.047006 0.093431 0.185180 0.385433
2025-05-25 0.006193 0.012066 0.023225 0.046373 0.094292 0.191279 0.408439
2025-06-01 0.005937 0.011800 0.023174 0.047288 0.098379 0.204306 0.447690
2025-06-08 0.005548 0.011233 0.022477 0.046808 0.099494 0.211220 0.474237
2025-06-15 0.005394 0.011132 0.022706 0.048282 0.104914 0.227833 0.524533
2025-06-22 0.004957 0.010403 0.021584 0.046757 0.103619 0.229620 0.540647
2025-06-29 0.004639 0.009902 0.020896 0.046110 0.104212 0.235653 0.567453
2025-07-06 0.004250 0.009213 0.019753 0.044349 0.102089 0.235269 0.578594